The 2007 STEM User
Group Meeting was a learning opportunity and forum for excellence in business modelling,
focused around applications and features of the STEM business-modelling software
for networks. This informal gathering at Corpus Christi College attracted delegates
from ADC Services, BT, Juniper Networks, Motorola, Nokia Siemens, T-Mobile, Telkom
SA, UK Telecoms Academy, Vodafone and the Welsh Assembly Government.
The event included a showcase of our latest WiMAX-DSL training material, a popular
session on the latest development ideas for the future STEM 7.2 and 8.0 versions,
as well as a number of guest presentations, described below. The event was dominated
by an interactive modelling exercise over four sessions where two teams worked in
parallel to create business models from a blank sheet in an accelerated process
facilitated by our expert practitioners and made possible by STEM’s automated logic
and consistency.
A meeting of minds
The event kicked off with a presentation of a new STEM training programme based
around a comparison of DSL and WiMAX as competing technologies for the provision
of broadband to a rural area. A deliberately simplified model presents all the most
important telecoms market and network dimensioning concepts in one screen and a
series of related exercises. A menu of advanced topics is then available for the
user to question the robustness of certain assumptions and think through how to
design better solutions.
This presentation was intended to set the scene for newcomers to the event before
hearing from several guest presenters, mostly existing STEM users.
David Mellor, Chairman of the United Kingdom Telecoms Academy, gave an introduction
to the work of the Academy, developing education programmes in telecoms in conjunction
with the ITU and other international organisations.
David McGrath, Motorola, talked about the work of his team and some general principles
and practical examples about using STEM and other tools in strategic thinking.
Adriaan Steenberg, Telkom South Africa, discussed some ways to reduce the complexity
inherent in modelling the growth of a large SDH network.
Manfred Illenberger, Nokia Siemens Networks, presented some work based on the latest
STEM version 7.1, exploring sensitivities around NPV break-even, and demonstrating
how to use this technique to locate an optimal solution.
Two of these guest presentations touched on the terminology and techniques associated
with modelling subscriber churn, which then dovetailed neatly with some of the content
in the separate in-house session on development ideas for the future STEM 7.2 and
8.0 versions (as outlined in the articles
STEM 7.2 development shortlist and Looking ahead to STEM 8.0 from the July 2007 newsletter). In particular, we looked at dynamic modelling and
an annual growth model (proposed for inclusion in STEM 8.0) which could be used
to model subscriber churn and additions directly.
Various annual-growth models
Business modelling by storm
The interactive modelling exercise was based around two optional topics which were
presented in the kick-off session:
Online conferencing:
the market and technical design for a desktop sharing service, the necessary network
infrastucture, and the associated revenues and costs.
Car hire:
a look at some revolutionary approaches to Internet-based low-cost vehicle rentals.
For both topics, delegates were provided with headlines of the business strategy
and reference data to help fill in the specifics of a model and ensure consistency
between approaches.
Online conferencing architecture
The team split was conceived as ‘newcomers’ versus ‘ old hands’, but in practice
the division came down to those seeking to develop their general business-modelling
skills and those wanting to learn from how others ‘do it in STEM’. The generalists
tackled the car-hire topic (as something fresh) while the STEM-focused team modelled
online conferencing.
In the second session, the inevitable debate about how to approach certain aspects
of these businesses did not prevent either team from getting a model off the ground,
and in the third session and the timed half-an-hour in the last session, both teams
worked magic to come up with results directly addressing the business issues posed
at the outset.
Due to the constraints of time, each team was given precisely 7.5 minutes to present
their approach and results. On car hire, we were shown a tornado chart comparing
various sensitivites and the significance of the residual value of a hire vehicle.
For online conferencing, we were shown snapshot charts comparing outcomes across
different scenarios, and another tornado chart. In the end, the generalists were
awarded the nominal confectionery for combining two new features of STEM 7.1 on
a single chart!
Sensitivity analysis for car-hire business model
Overall the exercise was considered “thoroughly enjoyable”, “very, very valuable”,
and “such a valuable experience”. On that basis we expect to run a similar event
next year, and your suggestions for possible business topics are most welcome.